Labour surges to eight-point lead in bombshell poll as John Healey prepares to unveil new tax raids

Data show Labour has extended its lead, sitting on 32 per cent, while the Tories have cemented their position in second on 24 per cent, up three points.

Reform sit third on 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems (nine per cent) have overtaken the Greens in fourth with just eight per cent, following a five-point drop.

Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK, said: “Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time.

“The Labour Party under Andy Burnham is resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them.

“On the right, the tectonic plates have been shifting recently and now this is reflected in the Conservatives – not Reform UK – being in a clear second place.”

Since September 2026, Kemi Badenoch has enjoyed the largest popularity swing, with 35 per cent now satisfied with the way she is leading the party – drawing her level with Andy Burnham.

Zack Polanski is facing the highest levels of dissatisfaction since he became leader in September 2025. Some 56 per cent are now displeased with his oversight, up six points.

The Greens’ leader controversially abstained from the “Zionism is racism” motion, which was ultimately passed. It defines Zionism as an “ethnonationalist political project” and states opposition to Zionism, the belief in Jewish self-determination and statehood, should not be equated with antisemitism.

Mr Polanski has since told the BBC he wants to amend the motion “at the first available opportunity” – in 2028.

Nigel Farage has suffered a similar decline in popularity, with 64 per cent now dissatisfied with his tenure. Two recent stings from ITV and Channel 4, which brought forward damaging allegations about the party, may have impacted his popularity.

Reform has denied any wrongdoing and reported ITV and its undercover journalists to the police, with the party’s spokesman for home affairs, Zia Yusuf, confirming: “Some of the crimes carry up to 10 years in prison. They forged a passport. They directly interfered in elections and almost certainly altered the results, being paid to ‘canvass’ for Reform in crucial wards we lost by a few dozen votes.”

Mr Pedley warned to be “mindful against overreacting to one poll,” describing British politics as “volatile” and noting Mr Healey’s upcoming Budget on Wednesday.

“The picture today is very different to six months ago and it could be different again in six months’ time too,” he added.

Mr Healey, the former Defence Secretary who quit his role earlier this year after a lack of funding in his department, looks set to announce billions in defence spending next week.

He will also invest in the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank, two separate Government funds.

The investment would be generated by long-term borrowing, opening the door to criticism from political opponents. The Conservatives, for example, vowed to increase defence spending by cutting the ballooning benefits bill.

Other measures Mr Healey could introduce include new pension levies and a hike in the capital gains tax.

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