Reform UK is “reshaping the entire political map of Britain”, a leading pollster has told GB News, as Nigel Farage looks well placed to capitalise on his success.
The comments come after Reform narrowly lost out to Plaid Cymru in last week’s Caerphilly by-election in Wales.
Lindsay Whittle secured 15,961 votes, nudging him ahead of Reform UK’s Llyr Powell on 12,113.
Support for Labour, who first won the seat in 1918, collapsed to a mere 3,713 votes.
According to one polling expert, the result “would seem to be the latest piece of evidence confirming the narrative that the status quo of British politics is changing. Those in Reform will no doubt be hoping that is the case.”
Despite not winning the seat, Reform’s dramatic rise caught pollsters’ attention as it secured more than 12,000 votes, up from just 495 in 2021.
It underscored the rise of Reform UK as a force capable of disrupting traditional party loyalties, a trend now being reflected in Scotland, a leading pollster told GB News.
George Buchan, founder of GB Insight, told GB News: “What we are certainly seeing play out is that the electorate is punishing the two long-established major parties, the Conservative and Labour Parties.”
Reform UK is ‘reshaping the entire political map of Britain’, a leading pollster has told GB News
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PA
He suggests that many of Reform’s breakthroughs reflect public frustration with both main parties.
While Plaid’s success could mean potential for nationalist movements, such as the SNP in Scotland, a new poll has revealed they are short of a Holyrood majority.
A new Find Out Now poll puts the SNP on 35 per cent for the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and just 21 per cent on the regional list.
The SNP’s ability to maintain momentum signifies a blow to Scottish nationalists’ hopes of independence, or “Scexit”.
Reform’s dramatic rise has caught pollsters’ attention
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ELECTION MAPS UK
The First Minister, John Swinney, has insisted that only another SNP majority can deliver a referendum.
At the same time, Reform UK is polling at 16 per cent in Scotland, while Labour’s position remains fragile across both nations.
A separate poll predicting Nigel Farage’s party will win 22 MSPs as Reform UK has overtaken Labour in Scotland.
The survey, by Survation of more than 2,000 Scots, showed the SNP still likely to be the biggest party at next May’s election, but with fewer MSPs.
Reform narrowly lost out to Plaid Cymru in last week’s Caerphilly by-election in Wales
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PAThe pollster concluded: “Reform UK’s strong showing in Wales and its steady advance in Scotland indicate a growing appetite for alternatives to the established parties. Whether that’s nationalist or populist, voters are clearly saying they want something different — and that’s reshaping the entire political map of Britain.”
Policies on issues like immigration and the cost of living have pulled voters away from the two main parties.
Reform UK’s base in Scotland is primarily composed of former Conservative voters, who have seen their support collapse following the 2024 UK general election and the loss of MSPs.
Scottish Labour’s support has declined significantly since the 2024 UK general election, and polls indicate that many former Labour voters are now undecided or have switched to other parties, with Reform UK a notable beneficiary.