Nigel Farage has a golden opportunity to win over the electorate by solving mass migration, but faces a major challenge, according to a top UK Pollster.
The importance of immigration has grown sharply since the election, with 13 per cent of voters naming it as their top issue during the last BMG poll before last year’s general election, but now stands at over double, at 27 per cent, in fresh research by BMG.
Over one in three voters say Reform is the best party to handle immigration, comfortably ahead of Labour on 15 per cent and the Conservatives with one in 10 backing them.
Reform UK revealed its plan for mass deportations in a bid to finally bring an end to Britain’s growing migrant crisis in emergency laws under the Illegal Migration (mass deportation) Bill, which includes potentially deporting 600,000 migrants over five years and barring anyone who comes to the UK on small boats from claiming asylum.
Nearly half of Britons would support mass deportations of recently arrived migrants, according to a YouGov poll.
The research, published in August this year, shows 45 per cent of Britons say they would support “admitting no more new migrants and requiring large numbers of migrants who came to the UK in recent years to leave”.
This figure rises amongst Reform UK voters, with 86 per cent of support backing the idea.
Labour and Lib Dem voters make up 27 per cent each, according to the poll.
Nigel Farage is said to have a golden opportunity to win over the electorate by solving mass migration
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GETTY
George Buchan, founder of GB Insight, told GB News: “Recent YouGov polling shows that immigration remains a key issue amongst the UK electorate.
“The polling, however, reveals significant nuance amongst public attitudes towards migrant removals, particularly around the issue of illegality.
“While a majority of respondents express support for the removal of migrants who have entered the UK illegally, the numbers shift considerably when the context and definitions are explored more closely.
“For example, support for removals is notably higher when the term ‘illegal migrants’ is used, but drops when respondents are asked about specific groups such as asylum seekers or those who have lived in the UK for several years.”
The importance of immigration has grown sharply since the election
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BMG RESEARCH
He argued that this suggests that public opinion is shaped as much by perceptions of legality as by broader concerns about migration.
The same data also showed that 47 per cent of the public believe immigration to the UK is primarily illegal rather than legal.
Irregular or illegal migration accounted for just four per cent of overall immigration in the year to March, with legal migration making up 96 per cent.
Speaking on the idea of mass deportation, Mr Buchan told the People’s Channel: “The data also shows that a substantial minority are uncomfortable with large-scale removals, especially if it involves families or individuals who have established roots in the UK.”
Since the plan was announced, Reform UK hit 35 per cent of the vote for the first time, according to a fresh poll from BMG Research
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BMG RESEARCH
He added: “This ambivalence is reflected in the way respondents distinguish between recent arrivals and those who have integrated into local communities.
“Such nuances indicate that blanket policies or rhetoric around removals may not resonate as strongly as more targeted approaches.”
Since the plan was announced, Reform UK hit 35 per cent of the vote for the first time, according to a fresh poll from BMG Research.
It’s also the biggest lead recorded for them over Labour, resulting in a landslide majority of more than 400 seats.
If a general election were today, leaving Labour with fewer than 100 and the Conservatives close to being wiped out completely.
Nearly half of Britons would support mass deportations of recently arrived migrants, according to a YouGov poll
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YouGov
Mr Buchan added: “For Nigel Farage, these findings present both opportunities and risks.
“Farage has built much of his political capital on a hardline stance against illegal migration and recent electoral successes for Reform UK suggest that this message continues to mobilise a significant segment of the electorate.
“However, the nuanced public attitudes revealed by the polling mean that any move towards large-scale removals could alienate moderate voters or provoke backlash if perceived as indiscriminate or inhumane.
“Farage’s challenge will be to maintain his core support while adapting his messaging to reflect the complexities in public opinion.”
Keir Starmer’s ratings have continued to fall
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BMG RESEARCH
Around a third of Labour and Conservative supporters at the 2024 election have abandoned the two parties in just over a year.
For the Conservatives, almost all defectors have gone straight to Reform, while Labour’s vote has splintered in all directions.
Reform UK is still the biggest beneficiary, picking up 15 per cent of Labour’s voters last year.
As well as this newfound support, Nigel Farage’s party has also retained almost all of their own support from last year: 96 per cent of their 2024 say they would put the cross next to the Reform box once again, according to research by BMG.