Reform UK would win fewer seats than both Labour and the Conservatives if a general election were held today, a bombshell mega poll has revealed.
A new large-scale seat-by-seat YouGov poll projects a hung parliament, with Labour emerging as the largest party on 241 seats, followed by the Conservatives on 130 and Reform on 123.
The Conservatives would improve on their 2024 result, while Reform’s projected total represents a huge fall from YouGov’s previous MRP last September, when Farage’s party was forecast to win 311 seats.
The poll suggests Reform’s support has been hit by the emergence of Restore Britain, the rival right-wing party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, as well as splits in the right-of-centre vote.
Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, who left the Conservatives to join Reform, would both lose their seats back to their former party under the projection.
Even if Reform and the Conservatives agreed an electoral pact, the poll suggests they would still fall short of the seats needed to form a majority government.
Labour would also struggle to govern alone, with the party projected to lose 162 of the 403 seats it currently holds and requiring support from other parties to command a majority.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 71 seats, while the SNP would surge to 40 and Plaid Cymru to 15, with the Greens taking nine.
YouGov’s Patrick English said Britain’s fragmented political landscape was hitting the right harder, with competing parties splitting the vote in marginal constituencies and allowing Labour to retain seats it might otherwise lose.
The poll, based on 14,000 respondents surveyed between August 23 and September 18, provides a snapshot of the current political landscape rather than a forecast of the eventual election result.
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Kemi Badenoch’s ‘sticking plaster’ welfare crackdown torn apart by Richard Tice: ‘A drop in the ocean!’
Kemi Badenoch’s newly announced benefits crackdown has received a scathing assessment from Richard Tice.
Speaking to GB News, the Deputy Leader of Reform UK declared the move a “modest Lib Dem-style sticking plaster” on an issue which “they created in the first place”.
Under the new plans from the Tory leader, long-term jobless benefits claimants could be banned from spending their welfare payments on alcohol, cigarettes and gambling.
Mrs Badenoch says the changes would also see Universal Credit payments slashed for those who haven’t made consistent contributions to the system, calling it currently “unfair to workers”.
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Reform UK being harmed by tactical voting, new research suggests
Research by YouGov suggested Nigel Farage is being hurt by an increase in anti-Reform tactical voting.
Over 40 per cent of Labour and Lib Dem voters would tactically vote for the Conservatives to stop Reform UK winning in their seat and 26 per cent of Greens said the same, reports The Times.
On top of this, 15 per cent of Conservative voters would be prepared to back Labour to stop Nigel Farage’s party.
Labour to ‘work with schools’ over new vocational GCSEs
Labour has said officials will “work with schools” to ensure planned new vocational GCSEs are deliverable.
Education Secretary Lucy Powell also said she did not expect every school to offer all vocational subjects, with some dependent on local business needs.
Asked whether there would be ring-fenced money to help schools pay for the new GCSEs or if funding would have to come from other budgets, Ms Powell told the BBC: “We’ll work with schools, we’ll work with the sector to make sure this is absolutely deliverable.
“What I imagine is that some schools will offer some of these subjects where their local labour market demands, and this is where our mayors and our local leaders are really helping to shape that in their area.
“So I wouldn’t expect a school to offer all of these, as they don’t offer all GCSEs at the moment. They will specialise in particular areas.
“But I think the vast majority of school leaders and schools will welcome this move because they want the recognition and they want to be incentivised themselves as well to offer more of these subjects.”
Top pollster says fragmented political landscape impacts the right harder than the left
Head of Elections at YouGov Patrick English said the poll showed that Britain’s fragmented politics impacted the right harder than the left.
He told The Times: “YouGov’s latest projections put Labour clearly ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives in terms of seats, while being only a fraction ahead of each on vote share.
“While Labour alone remain well short of a majority, there are a wide range of possible ‘coalition of the left’ options open to them to build a majority in a way where there just simply isn’t for Reform and the Conservatives on the right.
“While the British political left is more fragmented than the right in terms of the number of different parties, their collective vote share is bigger and translates efficiently into seat wins.”
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