A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Florida Keys.
People living in the southwestern area of the sunshine state could experience heavy rainfall and flooding by Wednesday due to Tropical Storm Rafael gaining strength in the Atlantic.
Meteorologists confirmed Rafael will be upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane as it reaches Cuba on Wednesday, but it will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves toward the US at the end of the week.
And now a spaghetti model – so-called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – shows the trajectory the storm will take over the next several days.
Rafael will also reach Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana by Saturday, introducing 40 mile-per-hour winds, with the storm possibly reaching as far north as Tennessee.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that the Keys could see water levels increase one to two feet, causing ‘life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.’
These conditions will last about six or seven hours and bring two to four inches of rain with wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mile-per-hour range.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson told DailyMail.com that they’re expecting ‘storm-force conditions’ to occur over the Florida Keys.
He added that the region could see a tornado form across parts of the west coast of Florida, but clarified it won’t be like previous hurricanes that have recently made landfall.
A spaghetti model has revealed the projected path of Tropical Storm Rafael. The storm’s impact is likely to extend 105 miles from its center, hitting the Florida Keys on Wednesday
As of 7am ET, Rafael was 80 miles southwest of Montego Bay in Jamaica and moving northwest at 13 miles per hour with wind speeds reaching 60 miles per hour
As of 7am ET, Rafael was 80 miles southwest of Montego Bay in Jamaica and moving northwest at 13 miles per hour with wind speeds reaching 60 miles per hour.
The spaghetti model shows Rafael will pass over the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Jamaica before heading toward Florida.
The NHC issued a public advisory on Tuesday showing that Tropical Storm Rafael will steadily intensify, with wind speeds extending 105 miles outward from the storm’s center.
Once the wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour, Rafael will be promoted to a hurricane.
‘The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,’ the NHC said.
Anderson said that they expect the storm to weaken from a hurricane to a tropical storm as it reaches the southeast Louisiana coast, adding: ‘We’re not expecting really any major impacts for the United States.’
Residents living in the Keys and Marathon will be hardest hit with a one to three foot ‘storm surge across Key West,’ Anderson said, adding: ‘So there will be some street flooding, for sure.’
Rafael is expected to be updated to a Category 2 hurricane as it reaches Cuba on Wednesday, bringing up to 10 inches of rain in some areas
The spaghetti model, created by Tropical Tidbits, showed the storm is likely to move northwest from its current location in the Tropical Atlantic.
The computer model was created by combining multiple forecast tracks from different weather models onto a single map.
And each line, resembling a strand of spaghetti, represents a forecast from a different weather mode used by NHC.
The storm will reach the southernmost tip of Florida by late Wednesday night, and according to AccuWeather, it will still be a Category 2 hurricane as it passes to the west of the state at 7am ET on Thursday.
It will pass through the Gulf of Mexico into Saturday and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm at 7am ET on Saturday as it approaches Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
The storm will continue upward toward Tennessee over the weekend and will die out early Monday morning.
States including Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are likely to be hit by the storm
The southernmost states are expected to experience up to three inches of rainfall and high tides of one to two feet
Meteorologist Nicolette Nolan told CBS: ‘The Gulf coasts from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida need to be on alert for impacts at the end of the week.’
Forecasters remain unsure whether the storm’s intensity will remain the same as it reaches Florida later this week but said it could bring localized wind damage and flash flooding to some areas.
‘The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur,’ the NHC said on Monday.
However, the agency reported that Cuba and the Cayman Islands will be the hardest hit with rainfall reaching up to 10 inches in some areas, leading to flash flooding and mudslides.
This marks the 18th storm to form in the Atlantic this year, reflecting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) prediction that 2024 would be an above average hurricane season.
November marks the final month of hurricane season, but up to three more named storms could form before the end.
