Westminster is still coming to terms with five-party politics.
A poll this week had Reform UK on 27 points – and Labour, the Conservatives, the Greens and Liberal Democrats within just two points of each other.
This is extraordinary – and appears to present an opportunity to the Conservatives who have been through a torrid time since being trounced at the general election in July last year.
Certainly, that is how Tory leader Kemi Badenoch appears to see it.
She told me today in a GB News interview: “The political landscape has fragmented. It’s no longer just about Labour and Conservatives, other the protest parties are doing well.
“We’ve seen the Greens polling at the same as Labour. Reform is there. Lib Dems are there, but there is all to play for.
“The truth is, we’ve just been kicked out after a historic defeat. It’s going to take time.
“The last oppositions were there 18 years, 13 years, 14 years. I’m going to do this in four years.”
Kemi Badenoch told GB News ‘the political landscape has fragmented’
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GB NEWS
There we have it. The atomisation of our traditional two-party system means that Badenoch thinks she can win the election in 2029.
Critics would reply that she would have to say this, or else what is the point in getting out of bed in the morning.
But I have not heard her be so optimistic about her party’s chances, and it points to a possible turnaround in her party’s fortunes after a party conference, when she announced bold plans to scrap stamp duty and scrap net zero legislation, which did not split her party, allied with strong showings at Prime Minister’s Questions to cheer up her backbenchers.
It has taken a year to get to this point, a period when Badenoch has appealed for time, allowing Reform UK to take a lead on the Tories.
I was among many who were critical of her for this, but now that strategy could be paying off.
GB News’ Political Editor Christopher Hope explained her tone ‘points to a possible turnaround in her party’s fortunes’
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GB NEWS
Not everyone is happy with former Prime Ministers Theresa May and John Major attacking her this week for dropping climate change commitments and lurching towards Reform. But what else could she do?
When I put their criticisms to Badenoch today, she was dismissive.
“You will have to ask them. I’m afraid that the plans that we have for net zero are not working,” she told me.
Badenoch has not found a satisfactory answer to the question GB News viewers yell at the TV whenever the Tories suggest a new policy: “But you had 14 years – why didn’t you do it then?” Perhaps time will mean that those criticisms will fade.
All this has come just in time for Badenoch: from this Monday, Tory MPs can start to submit letters of no confidence in their leader after a year’s grace period since becoming leader comes to an end.
The bar is low – only 40 Tory MPs need to have lost confidence in Badenoch for a vote to be held. But I detect no demand for more leadership drama from Conservative MPs.
And Badenoch herself was dismissive when I asked her what she would say to colleagues who are considering submitting letters of no confidence in her.
“I don’t have the message to them. This is something that has always been the case for Conservative Party leaders,” she said.
“I’m focused right now on what Labour are doing and making a mess of our economy.”
Whisper it quietly, but it feels that Badenoch has turned a corner as leader. The question for her is whether voters will notice – and crucially, care?