Britain is making great strides eliminating the use of fossil fuels, including closing down our last ever coal-burning power plant.
But a new study reveals a much more worrying picture worldwide.
Scientists say global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels are set to be the highest on record in 2024.
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will reach 37.4 billion tonnes by the end of the year, the experts predict – up 0.8 per cent from 2023.
This figure is based on preliminary data and computer modelling, but if it turns out to be accurate it would mark a record high.
The UK will have emitted around 0.3 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2024 by burning fossil fuels – or about 0.8 per cent of the total global emissions.
The report coincides with the Conference of the Parties (COP), the annual conference that gathers global leaders to discuss climate change.
COP29, taking place this month in Baku, Azerbaijan, is attended by PM Keir Starmer, who wants to cut Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions by 81 per cent by 2035.
CO2 emissions come from burning ‘dirty’ fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) to meet the world’s vast energy needs. Pictured, a power plant that produces electricity from coal, Rovinari, southern Romania
The 2024 projection (37.4 billion tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuels) is based on preliminary data and computer modelling. If accurate, it would mark a record high
The new Global Carbon Budget report, published on Wednesday, has been produced by an international team of more than 120 scientists.
According to lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, a carbon and climate scientist, the impacts of global warming are ‘increasingly dramatic’.
‘We still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,’ said Friedlingstein, a professor at Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
‘Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts.’
To meet the world’s vast energy demands, power plants across the world burn ‘dirty’ fossil fuels – namely coal, oil and gas.
These power plants burn the fuel to create heat, which is in turn used to generate steam to drive turbines which generate electricity.
Unfortunately, when fossil fuels are burned, they release large amounts of CO2, a greenhouse gas that traps heat, into the air, as well as other toxic byproducts.
The new research estimates that coal, oil and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively.
Globally, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to be 37.4 billion tonnes, while CO2 emissions from ‘land use change’ will be 4.2 billion tonnes – a combined total of 41.6 billion tonnes
In Britain, the last remaining coal-fired power station, at Ratcliffe-on-Soar near Nottingham , switched off its generators for the last time on September 30
By far, China releases more CO2 from fossil fuels than any other country – around 12 billion tonnes, or 32 per cent of the global total.
China is followed by the US (13 per cent of the global total) followed by India (8 per cent), the EU (7 per cent) and the rest of the world (38 per cent).
Professor Friedlingstein said these figures include emissions not just from power plants, but from planes and cars, because they use oil, a fossil fuel.
However, CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels is not the whole story.
Scientists say there’s been another 4.2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2024 from ‘land-use change’ – in other words, when humans modify the natural landscape, deforestation being one example. and degradation.
Deforestation is the process of permanently removing trees, often to make way for planting crops and cattle grazing to accommodate the human demand for food.
When deforestation occurs, much of the carbon stored by trees is released back into the atmosphere as CO2.
Globally, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20 per cent in the past decade, but are set to rise in 2024.
Deforestation is the process of permanently removing trees, often to make way for planting crops and cattle grazing to accommodate the human demand for food. Pictured, deforestation near Uruara, Para State, Brazil, January 21, 2023
Taking land-use change into account as well brings the total amount of global CO2 emissions in 2024 to 41.6 billion tonnes, the researchers say – up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year.
The researchers admit that there is ‘uncertainty in the projections’, so it remains possible that emissions could decline in 2024.
Confirmed figures for 2024 will be revealed next year, said Professor Friedlingstein.
On a more optimistic note, there has been evidence of ‘widespread climate action’ this year in an effort to curb dangerous emissions.
There’s been a ‘growing penetration’ of renewable energy sources – such as solar, biomass and geothermal – replacing fossil fuels.
The UK, for example, shut down its last ever coal power station in Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire on September 30.
England and Scotland are also set to collaborate on the construction of a ‘superhighway’ that transports clean energy generated by wind.
However, the UK is still relying on oil and gas, which explain the 0.3 billion tonnes of CO2 the country releases through fossil fuels.
Wind turbines harness energy from the wind using mechanical power to spin a generator and create electricity. Pictured, offshore wind turbines in Liverpool Bay on the west coast of the UK
In Norway, meanwhile, around 98 per cent of the electricity production comes from renewable energy – largely hydropower, which uses the natural flow of moving water to generate electricity.
This compares with a heavy polluter like China, which still generates about 70 per cent of its electricity from fossil fuels.
The researchers conclude that the shift to renewables worldwide is key to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
First signed in 2015, the Paris Agreement is an international pact to control and limit climate change.
It hopes to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C (3.6ºF) ‘and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F)’.
The US officially rejoined the Paris Agreement under President Joe Biden in 2021 after Donald Trump withdrew under his first term.
But Trump regains the presidency, he’s expected to withdraw the US for a second time.
Around 82 per cent of US energy comes from fossil fuels, while only 8.8 per cent is from renewable sources and the rest from from nuclear.
Professor Friedlingstein added: ‘World leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.’
Carbon emissions and the greenhouse effect: A primer
The greenhouse effect is the reason our planet is getting too hot to live on.
CO2 released by human activity is accumulating as an ‘insulating blanket’ around the Earth, trapping more of the sun’s heat in our atmosphere.
Without the natural greenhouse effect, heat would pass outwards from the Earth’s surface into space – making it too cold to live. But emissions of gases such as CO2 and methane push the greenhouse effect too far – acting as a blanket that traps heat
CO2 – and other greenhouse gases – are emitted by actions such as burning fossil fuels like coal for energy, burning forests to make way for livestock and
Fertilisers containing nitrogen produce nitrous oxide emissions – another greenhouse gas.
Meanwhile, fluorinated gases are emitted from equipment and products that use these gases.
Such emissions have a very strong warming effect, up to 23,000 times greater than CO2.
Sources: European Commission/BGS/NASA
