Global warming is quickly spiralling out of control, the Met Office has warned.
According to the forecaster, Earth is ‘off-track’ to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) – a key goal set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the Paris Agreement.
Last year, measurements taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, revealed the fastest annual rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) since records began back in 1958.
What’s more, satellite measurements showed a ‘very large rise’ of CO2 across the globe.
These were due to widespread hot, dry conditions, partly linked to El Niño and partly to other factors – including climate change, according to the Met Office.
The study comes just one week after 2024 was confirmed to have been the hottest year on record.
‘Last week, it was confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with annual average temperatures higher than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time,’ said Professor Richard Betts, who led the production of the forecast.
‘While this does not represent a failure to achieve the Paris Agreement target, as that would require breaching warming 1.5°C over a longer period and we may see a slightly cooler year in 2025, the long-term warming trend will continue because CO2 is still building up in the atmosphere.’
Last year, measurements taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, revealed the fastest annual rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) since records began back in 1958
The study comes just one week after 2024 was confirmed to have been the hottest year on record. Pictured: wildfires in the West Hills section of Los Angeles on January 9
The measurements taken at Mauna Loa revealed a rise in CO2 of 3.58 parts per million (ppm) in 2024.
This far exceeded the Met Office’s prediction of 2.84ppm (± 0.54ppm).
Worryingly, if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C (2.7°F), calculations by the IPCC indicate that CO2 needs to be slowing by 1.8ppm per year.
It’s not all doom and gloom.
Looking ahead, the CO2 rise between 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be less extreme than last year at 2.26 ± 0.56 ppm.
According to the Met Office, this is due to a partial re-strengthening of carbon sinks linked to a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions.
However, even this slower rise will be too fast to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
‘La Niña conditions are expected to cause forests and other ecosystems to soak up more carbon than last year, temporarily slowing the atmospheric CO2 rise,’ Professor Betts added.
Worryingly, if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C (2.7°F), calculations by the IPCC indicate that CO2 needs to be slowing by 1.8ppm per year
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‘However, stopping global warming needs the build-up of greenhouse gases in the air to come to a complete halt and then start to reduce.
‘Large, rapid emissions cuts could limit the extent to which global warming exceeds 1.5°C.
‘But this needs urgent action internationally.’
The new study comes just one week after a report published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), revealed that temperatures last year were 0.12°C (0.22°F) above 2023, the previous warmest year on record.
That makes 2024 the first calendar year on record to exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
Although this single year does not mean the targets of the Paris Agreement have already been missed, experts say that humanity is now ‘dangerously close’ to this milestone.
The data shows that an exceptionally hot start to the year brought the average global air temperature in 2024 to 15.1°C (59.2°F).
While temporary patterns like El Niño helped push temperatures into the extremes, scientists say human-caused climate change remains the ‘primary driver’ of extreme temperatures.
And with the rate of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere even higher than in previous years, the planet’s warming shows no signs of slowing any time soon.
Dr Friederike Otto, a climate policy expert from Imperial College London, says: ‘This record needs to be a reality check.
‘The climate is heating to levels we’ve spent years trying to avoid because countries are still burning huge amounts of oil, gas and coal.’
