In simple terms, Chelsea are playing well – but not well enough to be champions.
Chelsea’s attack, even after losing Cole Palmer for more than two months through injury, is on the same level as Arsenal’s.
However, Arsenal’s incredible defensive statistics set them apart.
Historically, to win the title a team needs to average a +1 non-penalty expected goals (npXG) difference per game – meaning you are creating substantially more chances than you concede on a consistent basis.
Only Arsenal are achieving that measure of consistency so far this season, with Chelsea needing to improve defensively.
Having beaten Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this term, Spain left-back Marc Cucurella said his side’sm inconsistency against lesser opposition is an issue.
“I think we dropped points this season against teams where you expect to win,” said the defender.
Interestingly, Arsenal’s exceptional defence threatens Chelsea’s record for the most clean sheets (25) and fewest goals conceded (15) in a Premier League campaign, achieved under Jose Mourinho in 2005.
“You can see they don’t concede goals,” Maresca said. “They are defensively the best team and top of the league and Champions league, so they are the team to beat.”
There are obvious stylistic similarities between the two teams – both play a patient possession style featuring high pressing.
Yet another key difference is the quality of set-pieces. Arsenal are the best attacking set-piece team in the league, with 10 goals in 12 matches and the highest xG at 7.88. Chelsea, meanwhile, rank second for with eight eight set-piece goals and have the fourth-highest xG at 5.44.
Despite Arsenal conceding only one fewer set-piece goal than Chelsea – three compared to four – they have the second-best xG against (2.04) when defending such situations, while Chelsea are the second-worst (6.40). Despite an improvement on last season, it may still be asking for trouble when Arsenal come to town.
Chelsea must also overcome an increasingly poor record against Arsenal on Sunday, with just one win in their past 11 Premier League meetings. The Gunners are also unbeaten in six at Stamford Bridge.