Betting interest in Reform UK and Nigel Farage has ‘surged significantly’ since billionaire Nick Candy’s defection, the UK’s largest betting aggregator has revealed exclusively to GB News.
Oddschecker, a leading odds comparison site, found that in the 24 hours after Candy’s announcement, 67 per cent of bets placed through their platform backed Reform UK to win the most seats at the next General Election.
As a result, the odds for Reform UK to be the next party in power have been slashed to 5/2, down from 12/1 when the market launched in mid-August.
This means that if you had bet £10 on Reform winning in August and won, your payout would be £130, but if you bet £10 now and won it would be £35.
The platform also revealed that 80 per cent of bets in the same period backed Nigel Farage to become the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer.
This development has seen bookmakers scrambling to slash odds on Farage taking the top job after the current Labour leader.
The former Brexit and UKIP party leader now has odds of 5/2 on being Britain’s next leader after Starmer, an implied probability 28.6 per cent.
This is marginally ahead of Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch on 25 per cent (3/1), and comfortably out in front of Labour front benchers Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner on 5.9 per cent (16/1) each.
Despite this surge in bets, bookmakers do expect Keir Starmer to remain in power following the next election, with an implied probability of 57.5 per cent (4/6).
Since betting opened in August, 53 per cent of all bets placed have backed Reform, compared to 24 per cent for the Conservatives and 23 per cent for Labour.
This has seen Reform UK’s implied probability of winning the most seats increase by more than 3.5 times according to current odds.
Implied probability of who will win most seats at next GE based on betting data
Oddschecker
Bets on Reform have been flying in since Nick Candy, a billionaire property tycoon and former Tory party donor, publicly ditched the Tories for Reform and pledged a seven-figure sum for the populist party.
Before joining Reform, Candy was known for his support of the Conservative Party, donating a whopping £250,000 during Boris Johnson’s leadership from 2020 to 2022.
But this figure could be about to be eclipsed. Today Reform Leader Nigel Farage posted a photo with Nick Candy and Elon Musk today, prompting rumours to run wild that Musk was preparing to donate a massive figure to Reform.
Speaking to GB News’ Political Editor Chris Hope on Tuesday, Candy promised to boost the party’s coffers ahead of the May elections next year and the General Election in 2029.
“I wouldn’t be doing this if I didn’t think Reform UK would be the party in Government in 2029 and Nigel Farage the Prime Minister of this country,” he told GB News.
Oddschecker spokesperson Leon Blackman said: “Reform UK has already been a dominant force in our political betting markets in recent months, and Tuesday’s announcement of Nick Candy’s defection has triggered another wave of market activity.
“In the past 24 hours alone, 67 per cent of bets placed on the ‘Most Seats’ market has backed Reform UK.
“Bookmakers have responded swiftly, cutting the party’s odds from 7/2 to 5/2, marking the shortest price since the market launched in mid-August, when Reform UK was available at 12/1.
“With momentum building, it will be interesting to see how betting markets continue to react to this news in the coming weeks.”
A Reform UK Spokesman said: “All the latest betting and polling shows that Reform has all the momentum in British politics.
“We are organising across the country and getting ready to win seats in next year’s local elections.
“The choice is simple, more of the same with the Tories and Labour, or real change with Reform.”
